Quarterly Markets Recap – Q1 2022

A look back at markets in Q1, which was dominated by Russia’s shocking invasion of Ukraine as well as rising inflationary pressures. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February caused a global shock. The grave human implications fed through into markets, with equities declining and bond yields rising (meaning prices fell). Commodity prices soared given Russia is a key producer of several important commodities including the crude oil futures. This contributed to a further surge in inflation as well as supply chain disruption. Elsewhere, Chinese equities were negatively affected by renewed Covid-19 outbreaks, leading to new lockdowns in some major cities.

The oil rally that was established during the last quarter of 2021 continued during Q1 2022 but took really of during the invasion of Ukraine in the end of February. The market was untradeable for about a week. We could see big jumps with no volume in price, getting an order on the chart was a task that was unable to be completed. The market was eventually able to blow off some steam. Right now we are able to get the order on the chart when a setup is triggered but it is not a guaranty for a fill. Most of the time we will have a fill on our setup but from time to time we will not be able to get a fill on all 3 contracts or we get no fill at all like last trading week when we did get our order on the chart but price just blow true it and never looked back. The move was good for a home run if we did get a fill on the setup, nobody was filled in the trading room.

Now let’s look at the numbers for Q1 2022:  

We ended the year 2021 up by 21K of profit but at the time of writing we are already approaching this number ($20900).

Lets take a look at January, February and March:

January 2022:

January was a calm trading month, some days without a trading setup but overall a normal trading month. We managed to take $3100 in profit for the trading month with an average win loss ratio of 64%.

 

February 2022:

The month of February was marked by the invasion of Russia into the Ukraine. We managed to take $5100 in profit for the trading month with an average win loss ratio of 61%. The gains where actually not made by the huge movements that where caused by the war, we indeed lost some money at the first day of the invasion. We stopped trading during the first week of the war, the market was not tradable at the time.

 

March 2022:

During the month of March we could take advantage of the big moves that the market was making. Our charts where indeed freezing from time to time but most of the time we where done with trading within the first 30 minutes of our trading session. Just wait for the open, apply our trading rules and follow them. Our monthly return for the month of March was $6150 but the win loss ratio was lower sitting at only 53%. The profit was mainly made with big moves hitting allot of home runs for the trading month.

 

at the time of writing 2022:

The month of April is almost at the end, the crude oil market is slowly showing a lower daily trading range but the range is still much higher than the normal 200 tick trading range we saw back before the war. The daily range is coming down from +700ticks and is now sitting at around 300-360 tick a day. 

We where able to take $20900 out of the first quarter of 2022 and the win loss ratio is sitting at around 59%. 

Monthly trading performance numbers:

JANUARY 2022: +$3100 

FEBRUARY 2022: +$5100

MARCH 2022: +$6150

April 2022: +$6550 at the time of writing!

 

How can we accomplish such performance:

This question is rather simple, we just have to have a trading plan in place with strict trading rules and we NEVER deviate from that. We never have to think about a trading setup, we have to look at our chart and if a valid trade setup appears on the chart we just have to take the setup, if in the mean time for some reason the market invalidates the setup, we cancel the setup and will wait for the next setup. This is the only way you will make it day trading, day trading is easy what´s tough is following the trading rules.

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Also published on Medium.